selling silver in new zealand

Are You Brave Enough to Buy Low

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We’ve been writing over the past couple of months or more that $2000NZ per ounce has been looking like a good level to buy gold at, as the price has continued to bounce off this level many times in 2012.  But buying is as much about (in fact maybe more about) psychology as it is about watching charts.  Which is why it can be difficult to buy at these lower levels because the fear is “will it fall further?”  Louis James discusses being brave enough to buy low…

By Louis James, Casey Research

Are You Brave Enough to Buy Low

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Silver Futures Commitment of Traders Data Looks Bullish

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This week gold in USD seems to have just edged out of the wedge it has been trading in for much of the year (see chart below).  We’ve read a lot about this pattern in the past week, so it will be interesting to see if USD gold does indeed head higher from here as many commentators now think it will.

Chart of Gold in USD

This bounce was no doubt helped by the comments from ECB head “Super Mario” (wish we’d thought of that name!) that “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be big enough!”

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The Gold Standard: What Do We Think About it?

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200 Years of Monetary History

There have been a number of monetary systems in place in the past 200 years.  And the below infographic from GoldMoney gives a visual representation of how the global monetary system has operated and differed for the last 2 centuries.

A history of exchange-rate regimes

[Click image to enlarge]

Source.

The classical gold standard sometimes referred to as the gold coin standard is in our opinion the best of the government instigated gold standards of the past 200 years.  You could cash  in your paper money for defined amounts of gold.  Click the image above to read a full description of it and other systems.

The Unadulterated Gold Standard

The classical gold standard is perhaps also most similar to what The Gold Standard Institute (TGSI) refers to as the “Unadulterated Gold Standard”.  Although not strictly one and the same.  Rather we’ll leave it to the TGSI’s Phillip Barton to explain one of the chief benefits of the unadulterated gold standard:

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Double Whammy for Buyers of Gold and Silver in NZ

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Silver in NZ

It’s been a double whammy for precious metals over the past 2 weeks here in New Zealand. Unless you’d been asleep under a rock you’ll have noticed the prices of both metals have been rising. But over the past month we’ve also seen the NZD/USD cross rate drop from 82 cents to today just under 79.5 cents.

NZD:USD Exchange Rate Chart

So a complete change in trend to what we’ve experienced for the past few months, where moves in the precious metals were being nullified by corresponding rises in the kiwi dollar. This has magnified the gains here.  Take a look…

Gold in USD is up 4.5% in the past 30 days while in NZD it’s up over 8%.

Silver has had even bigger gains over this period.  In USD it’s up 12.5% while in NZ dollars it has flown and is up 18.3%.

We should see them take a breath here, with the both metals (but silver in particular), in overbought territory on the daily charts (See the red circles top right).

1 Year Gold in NZD Chart

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Gold’s Coming Rise

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By late September, gold had fallen back to $1600; and when gold began to again rise, gold lease rates were pushed even lower forcing gold this time below $1600. The bullion banks one-two punch took the momentum out of gold’s 27 % summer rally and by year’s end gold would still be at $1600.

Gold-Lease-Rates

 

In 2012, between March and August, gold traded between $1550 and $1650 until late August. This tight trading range persisted even as global economic conditions deteriorated; and, gold, a barometer of economic distress, should have risen higher. It didn’t.

WATCHING THE BASIS

I read Sandeep Jaitly’s Gold Basis monthly newsletter with interest and, as gold’s trading range remained intact for much of the year, Jaitly’s advice remained remarkably consistent; his study of the basis indicating gold and silver were moving into increasing backwardation and accumulation of both metals was recommended.

On July 25, 2012 with spot gold at $1602, Jaitly advised: …The message from 4th July’s missive is reiterated. August gold has now moved into actionable backwardation (positive co-basis) – which is progressing higher. September silver is also in an acute backwardation that is progressing higher as well. Both of the metals will be volatile going forward and advantage should be taken on any dips. [bold, mine] Both of the metals are being taken off the market – or equivalently – people’s intention to sell either metal in size is diminishing rapidly. This is what the bases are saying.

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When Will Gold Finally Take Off Again?

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Gold’s pullback a year ago no doubt shook out a lot of nervous buyers. They got in on the rise, they got nervous on the pull back. They sold, and they lost.

That’s just the way the market works.

But it’s a shame, because when we look logically at gold’s historical performance – for example over the last 12 years – we see that holding their nerve, tough though it can be, will most likely turn out to be the best approach, and for good reason.

Look at gold prices for the last five years.

You can see, despite the pullback, that the trend is clearly heading up.

But to get a feel for when the current pullback will end and to understand what we can expect when it does, consider these three key reasons you should be considering gold in your portfolio mix:

1. Gold is an inflation hedge.

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How Will it Affect New Zealand Precious Metals Prices and the NZ Dollar?

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What do Buzz Lightyear from Toy Story and Ben Bernanke have in common?

“To Infinity and Beyond” is their shared catch phrase it seems.

With the US Federal Reserve’s Chairman’s announcement last week of open ended quantitative easing (QE), Jim Sinclair’s (of JSmineset.com) long time call of QE to infinity seems to now be in play.

Or as we saw written cleverly somewhere QEternity!

So consider getting yourself a Ben Bernanke “To Infinity and Beyond!” T-shirt or mousepad like these from Cafepress to commemorate the sad occasion.

Ben-Bernanke-to_infinity_and_beyond_white_tshirtBen-Bernanke-to_infinity_and_beyond_white_tshirt-closeup

But besides finding T-shirts what else have we been up to?

Well, considering what impact all this quantitative easing (QE) will have on little old New Zealand of course? Actually let’s call it what it is though – money printing plain and simple.

What Exactly is QE3?

Firstly what exactly is Bernanke doing? Well, each month he’ll create money out of thin air to buy $40 billion dollars worth of mortgage backed bonds with a view to somehow bringing down the US unemployment rate. This is on top of the $45 billion per month of longer maturity bonds they are already buying for Operation Twist. And importantly he’ll keep doing it until the US labour market improves. Never mind that the previous two versions of money printing did little to improve the US unemployment levels. So it beats us how it will work but here’s Bernanke theory for what it’s worth:

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Prof Fekete Interviewed by Max Keiser Part 2: Silver Conspiracy

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Last week we posted the first part of this Keiser Report video interview with Professor Antal Fekete.

So below is the part 2, which focuses more on silver than gold this time. Max Kesier manages to cover a fair bit of ground with the Professor in this interview also. Including:

  • How it took from 1879 -1935 to end the use of silver as money the world over. And how this wasn’t a natural occurrence.
  • How it was likely a conspiracy between bankers and the government that caused the death of silver as money.
  • Why what the world really needs is not a bimetallic monetary system (where gold and silver are at a fixed price) but a system with gold and silver where the market decides how they are valued.
  • How the inflation when the sovereign bond bubble burst will come all at once and only at the very end.
  • Difference between Menger and Von Mises in terms of Austrian economics.

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Salinas Price: Thoughts on Gold and Humanity

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This piece from Mexican Billionaire Hugo Salinas Price follows on from the article of his we posted last week. He turns his thoughts to what the global “gold supply” is really made up of. How most of it is “in hiding” and he comments on what it will take to bring it out from hiding. As always from Mr Salinas Price, it is an insightful read…

Thoughts on Gold and Humanity

By Hugo Salinas Price, Plata.com.mx

The supply of gold is largely misunderstood. According to MSM, gold supply is what is mined every year and brought to market – about 2,500 tonnes.

This is a big mistake. The supply of gold is calculated at about 170,000 tonnes, made up of virtually all the gold ever mined since mankind took notice of its existence as shiny yellow pebbles in sand “placers” in riverbeds. Every ounce –every gram – of this supply is owned by someone, either a person or an institution.

Salinas Price: Thoughts on Gold and Humanity

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Chinese being encouraged to buy gold and silver

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16 August 2009:  Up until this year it’s been illegal for the average chinese citizen to buy and hold gold and silver.  Also this year the government made it illegal to export silver and investing in precious metals is now also being reported about in the Chinese government controlled media.  See the video below.

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